Standard Chartered has expressed strong confidence that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by May 24, signaling a significant shift in regulatory stance towards cryptocurrency investments. This development follows a series of pivotal deadlines and a notable change in market sentiment.
Key Deadlines and Expectations
The first round of deadlines for spot Ethereum ETFs is imminent, with the VanEck ETF filing deadline on May 23, followed by ARK Invest and 21Shares on May 24. Geoff Kendrick, the head of FX and digital assets research at Standard Chartered, has stated there is now an “80% to 90%” certainty of the SEC approving spot Ether ETFs this week. This is a substantial increase from previous skepticism about a May approval.
Market Impact and Predictions
Kendrick estimates that market inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs could range from 2.39 to 9.15 million ETH in their first year, equivalent to approximately $15 billion to $45 billion. These figures align with expectations for spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting a robust demand for Ethereum investment products. Furthermore, Kendrick predicts that Ether could follow a similar growth trajectory to Bitcoin, potentially reaching $8,000 by the end of the current market cycle, based on Bitcoin price forecasts of $150,000.
Shifts in Expert Opinions
The SEC’s recent request for exchanges to update their 19b-4 filings ahead of the May deadline has prompted a reassessment among market experts. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who had previously assigned a 25% chance of approval, has now increased this probability to 75%. This shift underscores a growing optimism within the financial community regarding the approval of Ethereum ETFs.
SEC’s Considerations and Potential Approval
Sources close to the SEC indicate that the agency, led by Chairman Gary Gensler, is influenced by recent court rulings and prior guidance on Ethereum futures ETFs. These developments have paved the way for the approval of nine issuers seeking to offer products that track the daily price of Ethereum. While the SEC’s approval process involves multiple steps, including the approval of issuers’ registration statements (S-1s), the initial green light for 19b-4 applications is a critical milestone.
Political and Legal Influences
The SEC’s engagement with issuers and national exchanges this week mirrors. Its approach before approving Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year. This engagement has surprised many potential ETF issuers and industry participants. Who previously doubted the SEC’s willingness to approve Ethereum spot ETFs. Political factors, including increasing support for digital assets. And statements from former President Trump favoring crypto. But he have also played a role in shifting the regulatory landscape.
Court Rulings and Ethereum’s Security Status
A significant court ruling last summer against the SEC’s denial of Grayscale’s petition to convert . Its GBTC Bitcoin Trust into a spot ETF has set a precedent that could benefit Ethereum ETFs. The court found the SEC’s distinction between spot and futures ETFs unconvincing. And laying the groundwork for the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs. The SEC’s concerns about Ethereum’s staking mechanism. And its implications for security status remain a key consideration.
Implications for the Crypto Industry
The approval of Ethereum spot ETFs would mark a significant in the maturation of the $2 trillion crypto industry. It reflects a broader acceptance of digital assets within mainstream financial markets. It highlights political and legal complexities surrounding cryptocurrency in the United States.
Conclusion
As the SEC’s May 24 deadline approaches, the potential approval of spot Ethereum. But ETFs represents a crucial development for investors and the broader crypto market. With Standard Chartered and other market experts expressing high confidence in a favorable outcome. And the crypto industry is poised for a transformative moment. that could drive substantial investment and growth in the coming years.
